Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 91865.247631 96876.464832 101882.496306 107255.135035 112854.468010 118514.520089 124664.851225
2025-02-02 84814.506347 92586.967696 100563.734514 109351.269488 118749.251505 128487.818724 139331.091708
2025-02-09 79104.803292 88754.357511 98870.464690 110244.125087 122652.625326 135756.554754 150618.084032
2025-02-16 74002.130017 84985.330345 96708.416904 110115.637847 124986.650465 140937.769271 159302.487217
2025-02-23 70266.733886 82353.743812 95458.294669 110667.800072 127778.616690 146377.166981 168063.780044
2025-03-02 66792.770367 79748.583178 93996.108820 110753.516416 129846.853449 150847.001055 175611.344630
2025-03-09 64548.010685 78367.109258 93759.004916 112078.333366 133187.850339 156648.725005 184589.629848
2025-03-16 61433.360281 75810.764262 92024.162007 111543.629147 134280.983210 159804.061648 190488.226019
2025-03-23 59906.165592 75009.681399 92230.853275 113175.079013 137806.025409 165697.403135 199505.394168
2025-03-30 58152.775546 73845.305852 91929.297945 114137.977813 140494.981070 170589.872574 207353.702451
2025-04-06 56153.909086 72294.888291 91089.609199 114390.333106 142288.024709 174397.951072 213917.214474
2025-04-13 54165.066542 70673.210078 90089.708361 114381.851474 143713.776783 177733.978685 219903.442445
2025-04-20 53340.418551 70470.431511 90807.623304 116467.461067 147693.620230 184166.511000 229671.886585
2025-04-27 52507.754154 70221.769860 91445.083334 118443.685325 151548.279088 190478.595834 239355.531844
2025-05-04 51191.665453 69314.355312 91228.770149 119338.194697 154067.439486 195186.729104 247135.975363
2025-05-11 49447.436803 67802.761888 90207.901287 119188.617902 155269.560398 198282.036846 252964.983659
2025-05-18 48157.070374 66822.742436 89808.591103 119774.495701 157349.255111 202427.700142 260071.130166
2025-05-25 46709.704253 65590.255376 89046.532102 119865.268098 158783.915290 205768.436262 266194.322778
2025-06-01 45942.602009 65213.269524 89345.934894 121277.264710 161858.259545 211125.794727 274812.958232
2025-06-08 44335.239581 63681.331728 88120.867897 120707.317300 162408.210000 213344.655423 279554.433261
2025-06-15 43811.341581 63565.682179 88706.467373 122446.101383 165875.039719 219194.459256 288823.892607
2025-06-22 43011.749757 63053.091714 88753.127703 123472.209445 168427.401354 223907.875903 296700.133248
2025-06-29 41934.250339 62132.227264 88236.104842 123741.113242 169993.603517 227378.409496 303029.907041